Sproule ERCE's 2025 Latin America and Caribbean ​Energy Outlook Report

From Brazil’s offshore oil fields to Argentina’s unconventional production boom, Latin America and the Caribbean remain at the forefront of global energy shifts. In 2024, the region balanced economic growth with mounting regulatory challenges, fluctuating oil and gas investments, and an accelerating transition to renewables. While traditional energy sectors faced policy headwinds, renewable initiatives in solar, wind, and hydrogen gained traction, supported by international financing and regional decarbonization goals.

Sproule ERCE’s 2025 Latin America and Caribbean Energy Outlook Report offers an in-depth analysis of key market dynamics, investment trends, and policy shifts shaping the future of energy in the region. This year’s edition explores the resilience of conventional energy, the growing role of critical minerals, and the infrastructure challenges that will define the next phase of development.

Key Highlights Include:

• Oil & Gas: A Shift in Market Leadership: Brazil remains the region’s dominant oil producer, with new pre-salt developments and upcoming FPSOs expected to push production beyond 5 million barrels per day in 2025. Guyana continues developing quickly, producing an average of 616,000 bopd in 2024. Meanwhile, Mexico and Colombia face growing import dependencies as policy shifts restrict exploration. Mexico’s regulatory overhaul consolidated energy oversight, while Colombia’s halted oil contracts are fuelling uncertainty and raising concerns over long-term energy security. On the other tip of the continent, Argentina reached natural gas self-sufficiency in 2024, as the Vaca Muerta production continues to increase. 

• Renewable Energy & Decarbonization: Momentum Builds Amid Challenges : Renewable energy investments surged, with Latin America adding over 10 GW of solar and wind capacity in 2024. Green hydrogen projects in Chile, Uruguay, Brazil, and Costa Rica received strong interest, but execution delays and permitting bottlenecks slowed progress. Geothermal energy remains underutilized despite promising resources, with Mexico and Central America leading development efforts. The region’s decarbonization push faces infrastructure limitations, including outdated grids and transmission constraints.

• Critical Minerals: The Lithium Boom Continues : The lithium triangle of Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia hold over half of the world’s lithium reserves, positioning them as key players in the global energy transition. Argentina has dramatically scaled its lithium production, tripling capacity in just two years, while Chile introduced new lithium regulations aimed at balancing state control with private investment. Bolivia’s lithium sector remains underdeveloped despite boasting over 20 million tons of the world’s resources.