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Forecast

Sproule Price Forecast

Every month, Sproule prepares commodity price forecasts for the oil and gas market. The forecast reflects Sproule’s short and long-term views of key global and regional oil and gas commodity price markers and relies on Sproule’s proprietary models, analysis and insights.

June 2018

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Disclaimer: Prices and forecasts are subject to change at the discretion of Sproule. Read More

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Outline of Changes to the May 31, 2018 Forecast

Sproule and GPMI have adjusted our June 30, 2018 price forecast as outlined below:

Canadian Light Sweet Differential to WTI
 

 

Canadian Light Sweet as % of WTI

 

May 31, 2018 Forecast

June 30, 2018 Forecast

2018

94%

92%

We have widened our Canadian Light Sweet differential from 94% to 92%. Strong light crude supply in North America and limited access to market for CLS has resulted in wider differentials to WTI than previously anticipated.

Canadian/US Dollar Exchange Rate
 

 

CAD/USD Exchange

 

May 31, 2018 Forecast

June 30, 2018 Forecast

2018

0.79

0.78

The CAD/USD exchange outlook has been revised downwards to 0.78 due to a strengthening US dollar amid trade war fears, and possibilities for US Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

NGL Adjustments
 

 

Liquids

 

Conway to MT Belvieu Propane (c/gal)

Conway Butane % of WTI

Edmonton Butane % of WTI

 

May 31, 2018 Forecast

June 30, 2018 Forecast

May 31, 2018 Forecast

June 30, 2018 Forecast

May 31, 2018 Forecast

June 30, 2018 Forecast

2018

-8.00

-15.00

60%

55%

65%

55%

2019

-5.00

-10.00

65%

60%

70%

60%

2020

-3.00

-5.00

68%

65%

70%

65%

2021+

-3.00

-3.00

68%

68%

70%

70%

Sproule and GPMI have revised our Conway Propane, Conway Butane, and Edmonton Butane forecasts downwards. Increased Y-grade supply into Conway because of curtailments and bottlenecks in the Marcellus and Permian has weakened mid-continent NGL markets considerably in recent weeks. Although we do expect upwards pricing support as we move to fall, our overall expectation is weaker pricing over the forecast period.